Projecting the Shortage of Nurses in Texas by 2030

A report from the U.S. Health Resources and Services Administration says that, by 2030, fewer states will see a shortage of registered nurses than in years past. Unfortunately, those lucky states don’t include Texas, which has long been plagued by a deficit of nurses.

According to the U.S. report, which was recounted in a Dec. 28 feature in Modern Healthcare, national demand for RNs should hit 3,601,800 by 2030, while the supply of RNs that year will be 3,895,600.

However, the report says, the supply/demand ratio will vary dramatically across the states:

“Looking at each state’s 2030 RN supply minus their 2030 demand reveals both state-level
shortages and surpluses. The most severe shortage is seen in California, where the under-supply is estimated to be 44,500 RN [Full Time Equivalents], while the largest surplus is seen in Florida, with an estimated oversupply of 53,700 RN FTEs.
“Among the seven states that have estimated 2030 shortages, four states have shortages of more than 10,000 RN FTEs including California, followed by Texas (15,900 fewer FTEs), New Jersey (11,400 fewer FTEs), and South Carolina (10,400 fewer FTEs). Meanwhile, three states have a surplus of more than 20,000 RN FTEs, including Florida, followed by Ohio (with 49,100 more FTEs), and Virginia (with 22,700 FTEs).”

The U.S. projections actually are more optimistic than those in a report issued by the Texas Center for Nursing Workforce Studies. The supply of Texas RNs in 2030 will be 271,667, the center said, while there will be demand for 331,638, leaving a deficit in the state of 59,970 RNs.

The difference between the two reports is that the U.S. study projects a supply of just 253,400 RNs in Texas by 2030—18,267 fewer than the state nursing workforce report—and a demand for only 269,300 RNs, or a whopping 62,338 fewer than demand projections in the state report.

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